The future of cash use
On behalf of the Deutsche Bundesbank, VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik, in collaboration with SINUS-Institut, conducted a study to identify three different scenarios for paying with cash in the future.
Based on interviews with scientists, cash stakeholders and social organizations as well as a comprehensive literature review and a representative survey, the study identifies a number of key factors that could influence the future development of cash.
By integrating the Sinus-Milieus social model, it becomes clear what different approaches, expectations, drivers and barriers individual social segments have with regard to cash.
Possible future scenarios show how cash could be used
The scenarios created in the study are not forecasts, but possible visions of the future. They illustrate the consequences of possible developments and thus support decision-makers in holistic strategic planning.
In all three scenarios, the share of cash in total transactions will decline in the next 15 to 20 years compared to today. However, cash does not disappear completely in any of the future scenarios:
- The scenario "The hyper-digital payment world" describes a highly digitalized world in which cash has almost disappeared from most people's everyday lives, there are only a few bank branches or ATMs left and it is no longer possible to withdraw money at the checkout, as it is hardly possible to pay cash in shops.
- The scenario "The payment world in the cash renaissance" describes a partial return to cash and its advantages. In this scenario, the use of cash initially declines, but stabilizes in the 2030s.
- The scenario "The disappearing hybrid payment world" reflects an environment in which the use of cash depends very much on people's living conditions and attitudes. In retail, customers are encouraged to make cashless payments. Access to cash is steadily deteriorating and cash use is creeping out.